Gold Surges Past $4,100 to Record High on Trade Tensions

Gold soared above $4,100 an ounce for the first time on Monday, setting a fresh record as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts fueled a rush into precious metals. Silver also notched a historic high, underscoring broad-based demand for safe-haven assets, reported Reuters. Spot gold jumped as much as 2.2% to $4,106.48 per ounce, after earlier touching an unprecedented $4,116.77. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 3.3% higher at $4,133. The metal has now surged 56% in 2025, having breached the $4,000 threshold for the first time last week. The rally has been underpinned by persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty, robust central bank buying, and expectations that the Fed will soon begin easing monetary policy. “Gold could easily continue its upward momentum. We could see prices north of $5,000 by the end of 2026,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. He cited steady central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows, and the prospect of lower U.S. rates as key drivers. The latest catalyst came after U.S. President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with China on Friday, ending a fragile truce between the world’s two largest economies. Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in October and a 100% chance of another cut in December, according to futures data. Gold, which does not yield interest, typically benefits in low-rate environments as the opportunity cost of holding the metal diminishes. Analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale now forecast gold will reach $5,000 by 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its 2026 average price target to $4,488. “This rally has legs in our view, but a near-term correction would be healthier for a longer-term uptrend,” said Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered. Silver also rallied, climbing 3.1% to $51.82 per ounce after hitting a record $52.12 earlier in the session, buoyed by the same factors supporting gold and tightening spot market conditions. Technical indicators suggest both metals are in overbought territory, with gold’s relative strength index at 80 and silver’s at 83. Elsewhere in the precious metals complex, platinum rose 3.9% to $1,648.25, while palladium advanced 5.2% to $1,478.94.