Goldman Sachs Raises Gold Price Forecast

Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from the earlier forecast of $4,300, citing strong and sustained demand from central banks and Western investors. According to the investment bank, gold’s 17% rally since late August has been underpinned by “sticky inflows”, particularly from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Western markets and continued central bank buying. Analysts said these structural inflows have raised the base level for gold’s valuation model, while speculative activity has remained largely unchanged. Gold traded near record highs of $4,000 per ounce in Asian markets on Tuesday, supported by safe-haven buying amid political uncertainty in the U.S., Japan, and France. Purchases by the People’s Bank of China and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts have also contributed to the rally. As of 08:42 GMT (04:42 ET), spot XAU/USD was at $3,952.56, down 0.2% on the day. Despite this minor dip, Goldman maintained its view that gold prices will rise 23% through end-2026, driven by sustained central bank purchases and renewed investor interest once rates begin to decline. The bank expects emerging market central banks to keep diversifying their reserves, averaging 70–80 tonnes of gold purchases annually through 2025–26. Analysts estimate this trend alone will add 19 percentage points to the projected price growth, while a 100-basis-point Fed rate cut by mid-2026 could drive another five points of gains through increased ETF inflows. Goldman noted that the risks to its outlook remain tilted to the upside, as potential “private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market” could push ETF demand and prices even higher than current forecasts. Gold’s international rally has also driven prices in Pakistan to record-breaking levels, with the per tola price reaching Rs. 416,778 on Tuesday, a Rs. 1,500 increase in a single day, according to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA). The price of 10 grams of gold also climbed to Rs. 357,319, up Rs. 1,286 from the previous session. This follows Monday’s sharp increase of Rs. 5,400 per tola, when rates hit Rs. 415,278. The continued rise in gold prices both internationally and domestically reflects growing investor preference for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of global monetary easing.