Govt Misses Wheat Production Target for Rabi Season 2024-25

Pakistan has missed its wheat production target for the Rabi season 2024–25, with output estimated at 28.42 million tons—10 percent lower than last year and well short of the official target of 33.58 million tons set for an area of 10.368 million hectares. The actual area cultivated reached only 9.1 million hectares. This update was shared during a high-level meeting of the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) held on April 24, 2025, chaired by Federal Minister for National Food Security & Research Rana Tanveer Hussain and Minister of State Malik Rasheed Ahmad Khan. Senior officials from provincial agriculture departments, the State Bank of Pakistan, PARC, and other relevant institutions attended the session. While wheat underperformed, the Rabi season showed positive trends in vegetable yields. Onion production rose by 15.7 percent to 2.7 million tons despite a 17.3 percent reduction in cultivated area. Tomato output reached 654,000 tons, up by 8.8 percent, with a 4.8 percent rise in area. Potato production surged to 9.3 million tons from 0.37 million hectares—an 11.7 percent increase over the previous season. Looking ahead, the FCA fixed ambitious targets for major Kharif crops for the 2025–26 season. Cotton output is targeted at 10.18 million bales from 2.2 million hectares, rice at 9.17 million tons from 3 million hectares, sugarcane at 80.3 million tons from 1.1 million hectares, and maize at 9.7 million tons from 1.5 million hectares. Production goals were also set for mung, mash, and chilies. However, challenges loom over the upcoming Kharif season. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported 39 percent below-average rainfall from January to April 2025, including a 60 percent deficit in April, especially in Sindh and Balochistan. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected to persist in May, which could hinder crop sowing in Northern Punjab, KP, and Northern Balochistan. Temperatures are forecast to stay above normal across much of the country, though rainfall is expected to improve from June onward. Water availability for Kharif is projected at 60.5 million acre-feet at the canal heads. The FCA emphasized the need for judicious water use and the timely availability of inputs. On a positive note, sufficient seed supplies for rice and maize have been confirmed. Moreover, agricultural credit allocations are set to rise by 16 percent, reaching Rs. 2,572 billion for 2024–25, up from Rs. 2,216 billion disbursed last year.