Pakistan Revises GDP Growth Rate to 3.04% in FY25

Pakistan’s economy grew 3.04 percent in the fiscal year 2024–25, showing an upward revision from the earlier estimate of 2.68 percent, according to new data approved by the 114th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) The committee noted that the economy posted a robust 5.66 percent growth in Q4, driven mainly by a strong rebound in industrial activity, improved agricultural output, and steady performance in the services sector. The updated figures place the size of the economy at $407.2 billion, with per capita income rising to $1,812. According to the NAC, agriculture, industry, and services sectors all registered improved performance during FY2025. Agriculture grew 1.51 percent, up from 0.56 percent, with strong growth in secondary crops like vegetables, fruits, and tobacco — offsetting a 13 percent decline in major crops. Industrial output expanded 5.26 percent, an improvement from 4.77 percent, supported by a rebound in large-scale manufacturing, mining, and a sharp 28.5 percent growth in electricity, gas, and water supply. The services sector posted 3.0 percent growth, reflecting gains in trade, finance, transport, and public administration. The NAC revised growth rates for the first three quarters upward — 1.8 percent in Q1, 1.94 percent in Q2, and 2.79 percent in Q3, up from 1.37, 1.53, and 2.4 percent respectively. Agriculture grew by 1.5 percent, reflecting a slowdown in major crops, which contracted by 1 percent, and a steep 19 percent drop in cotton ginning. However, livestock (2.9%), forestry (2.7%), and fishing (1.4%) provided some cushion to the sector. The industrial sector showed a strong rebound of 5.3 percent, led by a remarkable 28.5 percent jump in electricity, gas, and water supply, and a 6.6 percent rise in construction. Manufacturing inched up by 2 percent, with small-scale manufacturing expanding 8.9 percent, partly offsetting a 0.7 percent decline in large-scale output. The services sector grew by 3 percent, supported by broad-based recovery across multiple segments. Finance and insurance activities rose 3.9 percent, information and communication surged 5.9 percent, and public administration and social security saw an exceptional 9.9 percent gain. Growth was also recorded in education (4.1%), real estate (3.8%), and transport and storage (2.4%), though wholesale and retail trade slowed to 0.5 percent amid weaker commodity activity. The NAC attributed the improvement to better data benchmarks, strong industrial recovery, and policy stability.  The forum also appreciated the collaborative role of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Finance, and State Bank of Pakistan in preparing the national accounts. The latest estimates show Pakistan’s economy expanded in real terms to Rs. 113.7 trillion in FY2025 from Rs. 105.2 trillion in the previous year.