Sugar Prices Skyrocket After PM Shehbaz Decides to Fight Pakistan’s Most Powerful Lobby

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s aggressive tax enforcement campaign against the sugar mafia has triggered a sharp spike in retail sugar prices. Despite the government’s success in documenting and taxing sugar production, raising recorded sales from Rs. 107 billion to Rs. 152 billion in just one year, the public has faced a surge in prices. The Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) estimates suggest that Rs. 57 billion in tax leakages were plugged through surveillance, track-and-trace systems, and on-site monitoring. While enforcement gains helped lift the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10.3 percent, the government is now struggling to contain prices at the consumer level. This looks like a “classic retaliation” from the sugar industry, as it has shifted the burden onto ordinary Pakistanis in response to higher taxes. Former finance minister Miftah Ismail acknowledged that the PM had resisted pressure from the sugar industry during his tenure. Miftah said the prime minister privately instructed him not to allow exports, even when foreign exchange reserves were low, and insisted on imposing a super tax on sugar mills. Miftah criticized the current export decisions under Ishaq Dar, saying exports should have been stopped once prices began rising. It has been disclosed that enforcement efforts are being applied across sectors. In addition to sugar, the tobacco sector saw a 103 percent jump in documented sales, cement revenue doubled, beverages rose by 23 percent, and poultry hatcheries showed a 50 percent increase in one month. FBR data shows that 15 percent of annual tax revenue growth was due to enforcement alone. PM Shehbaz has already ordered that no tax evasion would be tolerated, even if members of his own family were implicated. The Intelligence Bureau, FIA, and other agencies have also been tasked to probe sugar hoarders. The largest sugar producer in Pakistan is the Jehangir Khan Tareen (JKT) Group with a 15 percent market share, followed by the Omni Group with 12 percent. Influential figures from all major political parties own sugar mills, making it the most politically connected sector in the country. If the government fails to control prices, it risks reinforcing the sugar lobby’s dominance over markets. But if it succeeds, it would mark a rare victory against the most powerful business mafia in the country.