The benchmark KSE-100 index is expected to reach 160,000 by year-end, representing a 40 percent return in 2025.
Vice President JS Global Waqas Ghani told ProPakistani that the primary driver of this growth will be a re-rating of the market from its current PE of 6.0x to a long-term average of ~8.0x. He predicts a modest PAT growth across sectors including dividend yield contributions of 10 percent.
In a research report, JS Global has picked ten high-flying stocks as the driving catalysts for the benchmark index to rally even higher in CY25. “Our top picks include FCCL, PIOC, AGP, BAHL, BAFL, PSO and ILP. In addition, we highlight, FFC, EFERT, MCB, and POL among the top dividend-yielding stocks from our Universe,” the report read.
It said Pakistan’s resilience is clearly demonstrated by the strong performance of the KSE-100 index after a period of turbulence. The impressive rebound, it said, shows that the country’s economy remains a force to be reckoned with.
The ongoing momentum has been fueled by the government’s commitment to reforms under the International Monetary Fund program. With the government continuing to stay on track, further improvements are expected from here.
Positive macroeconomic indicators are visible across the board – interest rates are gradually decreasing, inflation is low, and foreign reserves have started rising after dropping to alarming levels earlier.
Most macro indicators have shown improvement in recent months. Pakistan’s current account has experienced a notable turnaround, with remittances playing a key role. The fiscal account also posted a surplus.
Easing inflation has helped reduce macroeconomic volatility. The central bank’s continued monetary easing will stimulate growth in key sectors that faced pressure over the past two years, particularly Cement, Steel, Pharmaceuticals, FMCG, and Autos.
The government has passed essential legislation with ease so far, and as long as this continues, the market will likely overlook any political noise. Ongoing efforts to improve the economy will be vital for maintaining market stability. However, any disagreements on economic policies between political parties will pose a risk to market performance.
The role of all stakeholders remains crucial to ensure the sustainability of the reform process and keep investor confidence intact.
The market outlook remains positive; however, everyone should remain vigilant to potential risks. Changes in international relations or a rise in unrest on the local political front that leads the government to deviate from the reform path could derail this bullish momentum.
Besides geopolitical risk, any unforeseen pressure on the fiscal front, delay in external flows/ rollovers, or the IMF review and bounce-back of inflation – remain key risks.
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Written by the expert legal team at Javid Law Associates. Our team specializes in corporate law, tax compliance, and business registration services across Pakistan.
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