Will Pakistani Rupee Fall Below 300 Against US Dollar Next Year?

The Pakistani rupee (PKR) is projected to fall as low as 290-295 over the next year. According to Topline Securities, the exchange rate will hover between Rs. 285 and Rs. 290 by June 2026 and gradually weaken to Rs. 290–295 by December 2026. The report attributes this to a combination of factors, including better fiscal discipline, ongoing structural reforms, and expected inflows from remittances and exports. The report anticipates remittances to grow by 7.5 percent to US$41.2 billion, in line with the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) targets, while the current account deficit is projected to remain modest at 0.25–0.75 percent of GDP, or around US$2.5–3.5 billion. Inflation is likely to remain in the 6.5–8 percent range through FY26–FY27, with the estimates factoring in a PKR/USD rate of Rs. 299 and moderate increases in electricity, gas, and fuel prices. Topline noted that the fiscal deficit could reach 4.6 percent of GDP, slightly higher than government projections, due to flood-related expenditures and revenue shortfalls. Nevertheless, continued macroeconomic reforms, improved liquidity, and confidence in the equity market are expected to support the currency’s outlook. With the government aiming to maintain a primary surplus of 1.6 percent, the report concludes that the PKR will likely avoid sharp depreciation, supported by reform momentum and improved investor sentiment leading into FY27.