Power Generation Falls Again Despite Big Drop in Fuel Costs

Power generation in the country went down by 13.7 percent YoY to 8,639 gigawatts per hour (GWh) in April 2024, and down 2.4 percent YoY to 101.089 GWH in 10MFY24 compared to the same period last year. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, power generation in the country went up by 7.7 percent from 8,023 GWh recorded in March 2024. The cost of fuel for power generation decreased by 10.1 percent YoY to an average of Rs. 9.21/unit in April 2024. During April 2024, the actual power generation was 20.4 percent lower than the reference generation. This decline in generation is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 4QFY24 QTA, according to Arif Habib Limited. Major contributors during April 2024 were RLNG (25 percent), Hydel (24 percent), Nuclear (23.6 percent), and Gas (11.3 percent). RLNG power generation is down by 10.8 percent YoY from 2,418 GWh in April 2023 to 2,157 GWh in April 2024. On an MoM basis, RLNG generation is up 30.1 percent. For the period July-April FY24, it is up 11.5 percent YoY. Hydel-based power generation increased by 10.6 percent YoY to 2,070 GWh in April 2024 from 1,872 GWh last year. On an MoM basis, Hydel-based power output showed a decrease of 6.6 percent in April from 2,217 GWh in the previous month. Nuclear power generation increased by 6.6 percent YoY to 2,043 GWh in April 2024 from 1,916 GWh last year, while monthly nuclear power generation shows a decrease of 1.3 percent from 2,070 GWh observed the previous month. Gas-based power generation decreased by 18 percent YoY to 975 GWh in April 2024 from 1,189 GWh last year but up by 22.6 percent MoM compared to 795 GWh in March 2024. Solar-based generation is down 10.2 percent YoY from 126 GWh last year to 113 GWh in April 2024. During 10MFY24, it fell by 6.8 percent YoY to 787 GWh from 844 GWh in 10MFY23. During April 2024, fuel cost for power generation decreased by 10.1 percent YoY and also up 10.8 percent MoM to an average of Rs. 9.21/unit, compared to an average cost of Rs. 10.24 in April 2023 and Rs. 8.31/unit in March 2024, respectively. For 10MFY24, fuel costs are down 4.9 percent YoY with an average cost of Rs. 8.79/unit, compared to Rs. 9.25/unit in 10MFY23. Imported fuel was the priciest with a cost of Rs. 27.45 per unit during the period in review.