IMF Forecasts Pakistan’s Gross Debt to Decline in 2022

The International Monetary Fund has projected a decline in the government gross debt for Pakistan from 83.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2021 to 80.9 percent in 2022. According to its report ‘Fiscal Monitor, Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances’, Pakistan’s net debt is also projected to decline from 74.8 percent of the GDP in 2021 to 74.1 percent in 2022. The government revenue is projected at 15.4 percent of the GDP for 2022 and 16.6 percent for 2023 against 14.5 percent during the same period in 2021. The International Monetary Fund has estimated the government primary balance to be -0.4 percent for 2022 against -1.3 percent in 2021. Furthermore, the government’s overall balance is expected to be -6.2 percent for 2022 against -7.1 percent in 2021. The report projects government expenditure at 21.6 percent of the GDP in 2022 and 20.8 percent in 2023 as compared to 21.6 percent in 2021. It details that the country’s debt to average maturity in 2021 is estimated at 32.6 percent of the GDP. There will also be a total financing need of about 35.9 percent of the GDP in 2021. The projected interest rate – growth differential 2021-26 – is -4.5 percent. The report also mentions the pre-pandemic overall balance 2012-19 at -6.6 percent, and projected the overall balance 2020-26 to be -5.2 percent. The nonresident holding of general government debt 2020 (percent of total) is projected at 34 percent.