Inflation to Remain At 5.8-6.8% in November 2024

The federal government has forecasted inflation to remain within the range of 5.8 percent to 6.8 percent in November 2024. According to the Economic Update and Outlook November 2024 released by the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan’s economy is observing a sustained recovery in the ongoing fiscal year. Inflation is expected to remain within the range of 5.8 percent to 6.8 percent in November, further receding to 5.6 percent to 6.5 percent by December 2024. The Report claimed that the first four months have shown better-than-expected improvement marked by receding inflation, a significant increase in remittances and IT exports, sustained external and fiscal sectors, and a downward trend in interest rates. On the agriculture front, wheat crop sowing is in progress to achieve the targeted area and production. The government facilities are well intact regarding the timely provision of key inputs to the farmers at reasonable prices. Meanwhile, LSM indicators highlight a sector striving to recover as Yearly growth remains negative while monthly performance shows signs of resilience with gradual production increases in key sectors such as textile and automobiles. The current account turned into a surplus from July to October 2025, bolstering external sector sustainability. The report states that total expenditure grew slightly by 1.8 percent to Rs. 2,483 billion (Rs. 2,438 billion last year). Meanwhile, the markup expenditure declined by 5.3 percent owing to the gradual decline in policy rate resultantly, the fiscal balance pasted a surplus of Rs. 1,896 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) compared to the deficit of Rs. 981 billion (0.9 percent of GDP) while the primary balance (surplus) reached Rs. 3,202 billion (2.6 percent of GDP) as compared to Rs. 400 billion (0.4 percent of GDP) same period last year. The Report states that Pakistan has been actively participating to secure commitments for climate financing and mitigation measures. During Cop29 held in Baku this month, Pakistan unveiled its two policies, the National Climate Finance strategy, and the National Carbon Market policy not only to mobilize domestic and international resources to support climate adaptation and mitigation projects but also to accelerate clean technology deployment and attract investment in sectors with significant emissions reduction potential. For the outlook, it is anticipated that exports, imports, and workers’ remittances will continue to observe their increasing trends, export will remain within the range of $2.5 to 3 billion, imports $4.5 to 4.9 billion,n and worker’s remittances $2.8 to 3.3 billion in November 2024.