Pakistan Needs $120 Billion External Financing in Next 5 Years to Avoid Default

Pakistan needs $120 billion in external financing for the next five years and faces a default-like crisis. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in its strategy, “ISLAAH: Immediate Reform Agenda – IMF and Beyond,” said Pakistan needs $22.8 billion in FY23, $24.9 billion by FY24, $22.2 billion in FY25, $24.6 billion in FY26, and $24.9 billion in FY27. PIDE Vice Chancellor Dr. Nadeemul Haque recommended a holistic approach to tackle Pakistan’s economic issues. Key areas of focus include regulatory modernization, tax reform, market liberalization, and improvements in the energy, agriculture, and banking sectors. A pivotal aspect of the reform strategy is the implementation of a ‘Regulatory Guillotine’ to eliminate laws hindering business growth and innovation. PIDE economists advocate for a shift from a permission-based system to clear rules, digitization, and market liberalization to overcome bureaucratic hurdles. The reform agenda proposes a uniform tax rate across all income sources, reforms in corporate and sales taxes, and transitioning to advanced income tax mechanisms. The strategy also wants to bring back import-export dynamics, promoting exports as a national priority, and fostering an investment-friendly environment. The power sector crisis, real estate market fragmentation, and regulatory negligence were highlighted as critical challenges in the report. Reforms in the real estate sector could unlock substantial revenue gains and attract significant investment, the strategy added. The PIDE VC remarked that overhauling the real estate sector was crucial. State-controlled real estate holds significant untapped value, with thousands of government properties in Islamabad alone worth Rs. 2,278.6 billion. Utilizing this potential could attract over $58.8 billion in investment, create 351,000 jobs, and generate an annual rental income of over Rs. 446 billion.